The Math of the Impossible

Lightning Strikes and Lottery Wins: The Math of the Impossible

Everyday Odds & Coincidences

Odds of being born on February 29th (Leap Day): 1 in 1,461
Odds of being born on the same day as your sibling (not twins): 1 in 365
Odds of sharing a birthday with at least one person in a group of 23 people: 50%
Odds of having the same number of hairs on your head as someone else: Nearly 100% (since hair count varies but falls within a predictable range)
Odds of meeting someone with the exact same first and last name as you: 1 in 500,000
Odds of waking up within five minutes of your alarm without an alarm clock: 1 in 3

Strange & Unusual Odds

Odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 10 times in a row: 1 in 1,024
Odds of rolling six sixes in a row with a fair die: 1 in 46,656
Odds of randomly shuffling a deck of 52 cards into an order never before seen in human history: Nearly 100% (since there are more ways to shuffle a deck than atoms in the known universe)
Odds of randomly guessing a 4-digit PIN correctly on the first try: 1 in 10,000
Odds of finding a four-leaf clover on your first try: 1 in 5,000
Odds of being born with 11 fingers or toes (polydactyly): 1 in 500
Odds of being a twin: 1 in 250
Odds of a randomly chosen stranger being your long-lost cousin (within 10 generations): Over 99%

Deadly & Dangerous Odds

Odds of dying from a vending machine accident: 1 in 112 million
Odds of being struck by lightning in a given year (U.S.): 1 in 1.2 million
Odds of dying from an asteroid impact: 1 in 74 million per year
Odds of being killed by a shark attack: 1 in 3.7 million
Odds of being killed by a cow: 1 in 20 million (more people are killed by cows each year than sharks!)
Odds of dying in a plane crash: 1 in 11 million
Odds of dying while taking a selfie: 1 in 50 million
Odds of dying from falling out of bed: 1 in 2 million
Odds of dying from laughter: 1 in 1 billion (yes, it's happened!)

Lottery & Gambling Odds

Odds of winning the Powerball jackpot (U.S.): 1 in 292 million
Odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot: 1 in 302.6 million
Odds of winning $1,000 in a scratch-off lottery ticket: 1 in 100,000
Odds of winning the lottery twice (if you keep playing): About 1 in 17 trillion
Odds of getting a royal flush in poker (five-card hand): 1 in 649,740
Odds of getting a full house in poker: 1 in 693
Odds of rolling a natural 7 in craps (the most common roll): 1 in 6
Odds of being dealt pocket aces in Texas Hold'em: 1 in 221

Sports & Athletic Feats

Odds of making a hole-in-one in golf (average player): 1 in 12,500
Odds of making a half-court shot in basketball (casual player): 1 in 50
Odds of bowling a perfect 300 game: 1 in 11,500
Odds of hitting a home run in Major League Baseball: 1 in 30 at-bats
Odds of winning an Olympic gold medal (U.S. citizen): 1 in 662,000
Odds of playing in the NBA if you're a high school basketball player: 1 in 11,500
Odds of becoming a professional athlete: 1 in 22,000

Bizarre & Cosmic Odds

Odds of being born at all (taking into account ancestry, sperm-egg chance, and evolution): 1 in 400 trillion
Odds that the universe formed exactly as it did (scientists estimate): Near zero
Odds of an alien civilization existing in the Milky Way (Drake Equation estimate): 1 in 60 billion
Odds that life exists somewhere else in the universe: Almost 100% (based on probability)
Odds of Earth getting hit by a civilization-ending asteroid in the next century: 1 in 74,817
Odds of experiencing a total solar eclipse in your lifetime (if you live to 80): 1 in 3
Odds of a star going supernova in our galaxy this century: 1 in 2,500

Crazy Coincidences & Unbelievable Odds

Odds of meeting someone with the exact same fingerprint as you: 1 in 64 billion
Odds of a baby being born with a tooth: 1 in 2,500
Odds of a snowflake being identical to another (scientifically improbable): 1 in
Odds of your name being randomly drawn from a hat with 1,000 names: 1 in 1,000
Odds of the universe being a simulation: Theoretical, but some scientists argue it's over 50%
The odds of your parents meeting: ~1 in 20,000
The chance of a specific sperm fertilizing an egg: 1 in 400 quadrillion
Combined, the odds of you existing are 1 in 10²⁶⁸⁵⁰⁰⁰ (10 followed by 2,685,000 zeros!)

Odds Are

The universe is full of strange and fascinating probabilities. In the end, the odds that something amazing will happen to you today? Pretty high—if you're paying attention.